New Debate and New Thoughts
I didn't see tonight's Fox News debate, but, by all accounts, Romney nailed it. Frank Luntz's focus group unanimously agreed that Romney won, and all of them came in undecided and left Romney supporters. I want to believe that tonight was enough to quash McCain's momentum and carry Mitt to victory, but if I had to lay money on it, I'd still say McCain wins on Tuesday. How many New Hampshire-ites actually watched the debate? There's just not enough lead time to have the impact Romney needs. I think he could win New Hampshire in two weeks, but the election is in two days. I think he could have won Iowa if that election were being held on Tuesday, but Mitt can't seem to close the deal in time.
Still, this debate, coupled with Romney's Wyoming win, gives me a glimmer of hope. It shouldn't, and my wife has encouraged me to stay pessimistic, but it leaves me considering the following scenarios as the Republicans go to the polls on Tuesday in the Granite State.
1) The Mitt Second-Place Scenario
Mitt's strategy has always been win big in Iowa and New Hampshire and then ride the momentum to the nomination. With a significant defeat in Iowa, even a win in New Hampshire won't accomplish that at this point. However, if he loses to McCain with a respectable second place finish, Mitt isn't necessarily done.
He should be, because by every traditional election model, you can't lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and end up as the nominee. Except Bill Clinton did in 1992. And 2008 is a whole lot more fluid than that race was. If McCain wins New Hampshire, he picks up momentum, but is he really the front-runner? Not quite. He's still nowhere in South Carolina, where the base loathes him with the white-hot intensity of a thousand suns. Huckabee probably wins big there. And Giuliani is still the favorite for Florida, the first huge primary before Super Duper Tuesday on the 5th. And Mitt has a shot at Michigan no matter what happens in New Hampshire. (His chances diminish considerably if McCain blows him out, but that's another story.)
So it's quite possible that by the time we get to February 5th, McCain, Huckabee, and Giuliani each have a win or two under their belts, while Romney is a solid second in each state. And with his money and organization, he stubbornly refuses to go away. So you enter Super Tuesday with no clear front runner and only one constant in every contest - Mitt Romney. And because money and resources haven't solidified behind a clear leader, Romney is the only one, other than Giuliani, who remains competitive through all fifty states. Hopefully, Mitt will be able to close the deal and win a few of those states and slug his way to the nomination by sheer brute organizational force.
It could happen. I don't know that it's likely, though.
2) The Obama Independents Scenario
As we saw in Iowa, Obama inspired independents to come out in droves to back him. That same momentum is surging in New Hampshire, where recent polls have the Illinois senator at least ten points ahead of Mrs. Clinton. New Hampshire has an open primary, which greatly benefited McCain back in 2000 when he relied on independents to overwhelm the Republican primary and blow out George W. This year, those independents may very well choose to vote in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican one, leaving McCain to the mercy of real Republicans, who, by and large, loathe him. Then Romney wins and is the presumptive front runner going forward.
This one is doubtful, because, for some reason, New Hampshire Republicans actually like McCain, too. But it could happen.
3) The Hillary Nuclear Scenario
My brother-in-law - not the one who wrote the op-ed - called tonight and asked if I saw a way in which Hillary can come back. I said yes, but it requires Hillary to not just defeat Obama, but utterly destroy him. She's itching to do it, and she's hinting that she has the info to make it happen. It seems to involve drugs, and possibly Obama selling them. I didn't think this would have much of an impact, but my wife disagreed.
"You think America would elect a drug dealer?!" she asked incredulously. I said, well, why not, since Obama has already admitted to using drugs, including cocaine.
"There's a big, big difference between using drugs and selling them. Huge." This startled me, since my wife likes Obama more than I do and has expressed a willingness to vote for him without holding her nose. If this turns her off, it may well turn off a bunch of the electorate.
This has nothing to do with Mitt Romney, except for the fact that there isn't a Republican alive who could beat Barack Obama in the general if the election were held today. I console myself as I try to let go of my slim hopes of Mitt in the White House with the schaudenfreudic rapture of watching Hillary Clinton twist slowly in the wind as she blows aimlessly into the dustbin of history. (Egads, what a tortured metaphor!) If Mitt won the nomination and had to face Obama in November, it would be far more devastating to see him crushed in the general instead of Beavis McCain.
In November, the Republicans lose. But Clinton and McCain will be history. That's got to count for something.
Still, this debate, coupled with Romney's Wyoming win, gives me a glimmer of hope. It shouldn't, and my wife has encouraged me to stay pessimistic, but it leaves me considering the following scenarios as the Republicans go to the polls on Tuesday in the Granite State.
1) The Mitt Second-Place Scenario
Mitt's strategy has always been win big in Iowa and New Hampshire and then ride the momentum to the nomination. With a significant defeat in Iowa, even a win in New Hampshire won't accomplish that at this point. However, if he loses to McCain with a respectable second place finish, Mitt isn't necessarily done.
He should be, because by every traditional election model, you can't lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and end up as the nominee. Except Bill Clinton did in 1992. And 2008 is a whole lot more fluid than that race was. If McCain wins New Hampshire, he picks up momentum, but is he really the front-runner? Not quite. He's still nowhere in South Carolina, where the base loathes him with the white-hot intensity of a thousand suns. Huckabee probably wins big there. And Giuliani is still the favorite for Florida, the first huge primary before Super Duper Tuesday on the 5th. And Mitt has a shot at Michigan no matter what happens in New Hampshire. (His chances diminish considerably if McCain blows him out, but that's another story.)
So it's quite possible that by the time we get to February 5th, McCain, Huckabee, and Giuliani each have a win or two under their belts, while Romney is a solid second in each state. And with his money and organization, he stubbornly refuses to go away. So you enter Super Tuesday with no clear front runner and only one constant in every contest - Mitt Romney. And because money and resources haven't solidified behind a clear leader, Romney is the only one, other than Giuliani, who remains competitive through all fifty states. Hopefully, Mitt will be able to close the deal and win a few of those states and slug his way to the nomination by sheer brute organizational force.
It could happen. I don't know that it's likely, though.
2) The Obama Independents Scenario
As we saw in Iowa, Obama inspired independents to come out in droves to back him. That same momentum is surging in New Hampshire, where recent polls have the Illinois senator at least ten points ahead of Mrs. Clinton. New Hampshire has an open primary, which greatly benefited McCain back in 2000 when he relied on independents to overwhelm the Republican primary and blow out George W. This year, those independents may very well choose to vote in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican one, leaving McCain to the mercy of real Republicans, who, by and large, loathe him. Then Romney wins and is the presumptive front runner going forward.
This one is doubtful, because, for some reason, New Hampshire Republicans actually like McCain, too. But it could happen.
3) The Hillary Nuclear Scenario
My brother-in-law - not the one who wrote the op-ed - called tonight and asked if I saw a way in which Hillary can come back. I said yes, but it requires Hillary to not just defeat Obama, but utterly destroy him. She's itching to do it, and she's hinting that she has the info to make it happen. It seems to involve drugs, and possibly Obama selling them. I didn't think this would have much of an impact, but my wife disagreed.
"You think America would elect a drug dealer?!" she asked incredulously. I said, well, why not, since Obama has already admitted to using drugs, including cocaine.
"There's a big, big difference between using drugs and selling them. Huge." This startled me, since my wife likes Obama more than I do and has expressed a willingness to vote for him without holding her nose. If this turns her off, it may well turn off a bunch of the electorate.
This has nothing to do with Mitt Romney, except for the fact that there isn't a Republican alive who could beat Barack Obama in the general if the election were held today. I console myself as I try to let go of my slim hopes of Mitt in the White House with the schaudenfreudic rapture of watching Hillary Clinton twist slowly in the wind as she blows aimlessly into the dustbin of history. (Egads, what a tortured metaphor!) If Mitt won the nomination and had to face Obama in November, it would be far more devastating to see him crushed in the general instead of Beavis McCain.
In November, the Republicans lose. But Clinton and McCain will be history. That's got to count for something.
posted by Elder Samuel Bennett | 9:10 PM
5 Comments:
Although I find the political dissection fascinating on this blog, the real reason I check in multiple times daily is to learn more about Battlestar Galaxica. What gives?
And as a side note... holy climatology Batman! It was a harrowing ride back from Zion today. Multiple snowstorms, hailstorms, icestorms, and the fiercest rainstorm I can remember in SoCal. I-15 was closed at the Cajon Pass one hour after we got through it.
"Galaxica?"
Geesh. You're no Languatron, that's for sure.
Sorry about the rough ride. We had no trouble making it bakc from Nickelcade.
>>In November, the Republicans lose. But Clinton and McCain will be history. That's got to count for something.<<
This is the most warm, comforting piece of political commentary I have heard in years...
Get it right. It's "Cattlecar Galaxative".
What is this Battlestar Galactica you speak of?
I wish to know more about the oft-misunderstood 70's blaxploitation TV series Battlestar Galaxica, starring Redd Foxx, Slappy White, and a rejuvenated Tippi Hedren.
And as for that other fellow, though I don't work for Universal, I do know someone who does.
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