Romney Needs a Huckabee Win in SC
That may sound stupid, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. In fact, I'm writing this from the hotel lobby in Grand Junction, Colorado, as the Cornells travel to Colorado Springs for Mrs. Cornell's nephew's missionary farewell. I won't be able to blog much today, I'm betting, but I'll be following the SC results as closely as circumstances allow.
Romney is not going to win South Carolina. He's going to win Nevada, where more delegates are at stake, and he'll do so handily, but nobody seems to care. So he has to hope for the least objectionable outcome in SC to complete in Florida. The best outcome for him, other than an upset Romney victory, would be an upset Thompson victory. The Rush Limbaughs of the world are hoping for that, but it doesn't seem to be in the cards. Thompson is behind Romney in most of the polls, stuck in either third or fourth place. He's behind McCain and Huckabee by double digits. If he wins, he kills of any McCain or Huck momentum. If he loses, he's even more finished than he already is.
So the best outcome, going into the Florida winner-take-all primary on the 28th, would be a decisive Huckabee win in SC, which could be written off as the result of more pandering to religious loons. It would stifle McCain's momentum and give Romney a fighting chance for Florida, which most polls show as a four-way tie. A huge McCain victory in SC would give him a pretty good surge going forward, which is not what Romney needs at the moment.
Huckabee, this morning, has pulled ahead of McCain in the InTrade number, but just barely. They're both hovering around 50 dollars a share. A close finish would be better than a decisive McCain win, but the Huckster winning in a walk would probably be better.
That's why I, with my touch of death, am for McCain again in SC. Go Beavis!
Romney is not going to win South Carolina. He's going to win Nevada, where more delegates are at stake, and he'll do so handily, but nobody seems to care. So he has to hope for the least objectionable outcome in SC to complete in Florida. The best outcome for him, other than an upset Romney victory, would be an upset Thompson victory. The Rush Limbaughs of the world are hoping for that, but it doesn't seem to be in the cards. Thompson is behind Romney in most of the polls, stuck in either third or fourth place. He's behind McCain and Huckabee by double digits. If he wins, he kills of any McCain or Huck momentum. If he loses, he's even more finished than he already is.
So the best outcome, going into the Florida winner-take-all primary on the 28th, would be a decisive Huckabee win in SC, which could be written off as the result of more pandering to religious loons. It would stifle McCain's momentum and give Romney a fighting chance for Florida, which most polls show as a four-way tie. A huge McCain victory in SC would give him a pretty good surge going forward, which is not what Romney needs at the moment.
Huckabee, this morning, has pulled ahead of McCain in the InTrade number, but just barely. They're both hovering around 50 dollars a share. A close finish would be better than a decisive McCain win, but the Huckster winning in a walk would probably be better.
That's why I, with my touch of death, am for McCain again in SC. Go Beavis!
posted by Elder Samuel Bennett | 7:04 AM
3 Comments:
In a shocker, Mitt won Nevada. Mitt's being too practical, going for delegates instead of headlines! South Carolina gets all the pub and press because of its history and location, but Nevada has more delegates. Go Mitt!
Yeah, it's snowing there. Aint nobody going out to vote. Hopefully Mitt's voters are willing to brave it.
Um, I mean McCain's voters?
I can't believe McCain tied or was third in Nevada behind Ron Paul! Hahaha.
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