Election '08: Less is Morris
In reference to Hollywood, writer William Goldman once famously remarked that “no one knows anything.”
It’s true in Hollywood, but it’s especially true in the world of politics. If you doubt it, look at Dick Morris, however unpleasant it may be to do so.
Morris is a weasel who’s worked for both Jesse Helms and Bill Clinton. He is also a guy who has made an entire career out of knowing nothing. After leaving the Clintons because he was getting his toes sucked by prostitutes, Morris has inflicted his colossally boneheaded prognostication skills on the public at large. Some examples:
In 1998, he predicted a huge Republican tidal wave. Instead, the Republicans lost seats in both houses of Congress.
In 2000, he assured us the next president would be Al Gore, and by a comfortable margin. Oops.
In 2002, Morris was certain the Democrats were going to retake both houses of Congress. Instead, they lost seats – and control of the US Senate.
Morris promised us that 2004 would end with the election of President John Kerry. Oops again.
All of this teaches us one immutable truth: Dick Morris is an idiot.
Yet people keep paying him money, and they listen to what he has to say. Why? Seriously, why? He was right about the Republican debacle in 2006, but who wasn’t? You’d have to be either Beavis and/or Butthead to have whiffed it on that one. The only reason I had a sliver of hope that Republicans might have been able to pull ‘06 out of the crapper was that Dick Morris was predicting the opposite.
The surest way to easy money is to bet against Dick Morris.
So what does this moron have to say about ’08? Well, after having written a ludicrous book about the presidential race between Hillary and Condoleeza Rice, who was never even close to being a candidate, Morris concludes that Hillary is unstoppable. The GOP is washed out until 2010, when they’ll sweep back into power on a 1994-style tidal wave.
Wrong. Here’s what’s going to happen.
On the Democratic side, Hillary will stumble a bit in Iowa, but she’ll come roaring back in New Hampshire and will sew up the nomination in short order after that.
The Republican side will become interesting when Mitt Romney wins both Iowa and New Hampshire by comfortable margins. Thompson and McCain will then be gone, and Huckabee, with a strong showing in Iowa, will limp along until Super Tuesday, when a lack of money and organization will force him to declare a moral victory and disappear. That leaves Romney and Giulani still standing, despite the fact that Rudy won’t have won anything yet. Unfortunately, everyone already expects Romney to take the first two early contests, so he won’t get the huge bounce in media coverage he’s looking for. What he will get, though, is the unified force of the “Anyone but Rudy” vote, which is currently diluted by McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee, all of whom will be history by February. Giulani’s aura of inevitability will vanish, as will the idea that the way to beat Hillary is to nominate a pro-choice, anti-gun, thrice-divorced malcontent. Giuliani wins Florida, and that’s it. He’s done.
Romney, to everyone’s surprise, becomes the Republican nominee.
Suddenly, with a clear choice between Hillary and Romney, everyone remembers why they hated Hillary in the first place. Pundits will make hay out of Romney’s Mormonism – Dick Morris insists it makes him unelectable – but America will compare Mormonism to Clintonism, and even the hardcore Evangelicals will hold their noses and vote against Hillary. The Bush haters will have a harder time connecting Mitt to Bush than they thought, since Mitt will continue to run against Washington, of which Hillary is the living embodiment of everything that’s wrong therewith. Faced with the sad reality of perpetuating a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton dynasty for another eight years, America, despite all of their problems with W, will elect another Republican.
“Hail to the Chief” will play for President Mitt Romney in January of 2009.
The unease with Republicans will be reflected in the Congress, where Democrats will gain seats in both the the House and Senate, yet be unable to get a large enough margin to actually do anything. As for 2010, who the heck knows? It depends on Romney. The only solid info we have is that Morris says the Repubs will win big, so expect massive Democrat gains.
There! See how easy that is? So where’s my book deal?
It’s true in Hollywood, but it’s especially true in the world of politics. If you doubt it, look at Dick Morris, however unpleasant it may be to do so.
Morris is a weasel who’s worked for both Jesse Helms and Bill Clinton. He is also a guy who has made an entire career out of knowing nothing. After leaving the Clintons because he was getting his toes sucked by prostitutes, Morris has inflicted his colossally boneheaded prognostication skills on the public at large. Some examples:In 1998, he predicted a huge Republican tidal wave. Instead, the Republicans lost seats in both houses of Congress.
In 2000, he assured us the next president would be Al Gore, and by a comfortable margin. Oops.
In 2002, Morris was certain the Democrats were going to retake both houses of Congress. Instead, they lost seats – and control of the US Senate.
Morris promised us that 2004 would end with the election of President John Kerry. Oops again.
All of this teaches us one immutable truth: Dick Morris is an idiot.
Yet people keep paying him money, and they listen to what he has to say. Why? Seriously, why? He was right about the Republican debacle in 2006, but who wasn’t? You’d have to be either Beavis and/or Butthead to have whiffed it on that one. The only reason I had a sliver of hope that Republicans might have been able to pull ‘06 out of the crapper was that Dick Morris was predicting the opposite.
The surest way to easy money is to bet against Dick Morris.
So what does this moron have to say about ’08? Well, after having written a ludicrous book about the presidential race between Hillary and Condoleeza Rice, who was never even close to being a candidate, Morris concludes that Hillary is unstoppable. The GOP is washed out until 2010, when they’ll sweep back into power on a 1994-style tidal wave.
Wrong. Here’s what’s going to happen.
On the Democratic side, Hillary will stumble a bit in Iowa, but she’ll come roaring back in New Hampshire and will sew up the nomination in short order after that.
The Republican side will become interesting when Mitt Romney wins both Iowa and New Hampshire by comfortable margins. Thompson and McCain will then be gone, and Huckabee, with a strong showing in Iowa, will limp along until Super Tuesday, when a lack of money and organization will force him to declare a moral victory and disappear. That leaves Romney and Giulani still standing, despite the fact that Rudy won’t have won anything yet. Unfortunately, everyone already expects Romney to take the first two early contests, so he won’t get the huge bounce in media coverage he’s looking for. What he will get, though, is the unified force of the “Anyone but Rudy” vote, which is currently diluted by McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee, all of whom will be history by February. Giulani’s aura of inevitability will vanish, as will the idea that the way to beat Hillary is to nominate a pro-choice, anti-gun, thrice-divorced malcontent. Giuliani wins Florida, and that’s it. He’s done.
Romney, to everyone’s surprise, becomes the Republican nominee.
Suddenly, with a clear choice between Hillary and Romney, everyone remembers why they hated Hillary in the first place. Pundits will make hay out of Romney’s Mormonism – Dick Morris insists it makes him unelectable – but America will compare Mormonism to Clintonism, and even the hardcore Evangelicals will hold their noses and vote against Hillary. The Bush haters will have a harder time connecting Mitt to Bush than they thought, since Mitt will continue to run against Washington, of which Hillary is the living embodiment of everything that’s wrong therewith. Faced with the sad reality of perpetuating a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton dynasty for another eight years, America, despite all of their problems with W, will elect another Republican.
“Hail to the Chief” will play for President Mitt Romney in January of 2009.
The unease with Republicans will be reflected in the Congress, where Democrats will gain seats in both the the House and Senate, yet be unable to get a large enough margin to actually do anything. As for 2010, who the heck knows? It depends on Romney. The only solid info we have is that Morris says the Repubs will win big, so expect massive Democrat gains.
There! See how easy that is? So where’s my book deal?
posted by Elder Samuel Bennett | 3:13 PM
10 Comments:
Boy would this sure be nice! I don't think McCain and Thompson will drop out after Iowa and New Hampshire, and Romney's wins in these states is a far cry from certain. The heavily fundamentalist Christian part of the Republican party would rather swallow hard and support Giuliani (even silently) than vote for a Mormon.
Mitt needs to make his "I'm a Mormon and so what?" speech if he wants to have any chance at getting those votes. Maybe he's waiting until after Iowa and NH?
We can both agree that Dick Morris is a Jello-snorting, piglet eating, torturously pompous mound of goo, though.
And I cannot understand anyone's infatuation with Mrs. Carpet-Bagger Clinton. She has no experience being the person in charge of any large entity of anything.
I don't think Mitt can beat Hill-dog. She is just too ruthless and she will blame him for everything that went wrong in Massachusetts. The Boston Globe (ridiculously slanted) has been slowly doing this for years.
He also left his Lt. Governor high and dry when she ran for Governor. A lot of us Massachusetts Republicans cannot forgive him for that.
I can’t help but think back when Mitt went against Ted K and got smoked. I think I would happen to him again.
The Economist thinks Hillary is going to win. And the Economist, as we all know, is the only true and living magazine.
Hillary for 8
Jeb Bush for 8
Chelsea for 8
I dunno, FK. Mitt has been leading solidly in both Iowa and NH forever. He's also ahead in Michigan and - shocker - South Carolina. If he wins all four of these, everyone else collapses. And if he wins Iowa and NH, which is increasingly likely, he has major momentum heading into the next primaries. Giuliani is going to have an awfully hard time keeping everyone's spirits up if he loses four primaries in a row.
McCain is enjoying something of a resurgence at the moment, but even he admits he has to win New Hampshire to stay alive. And he's not going to win New Hampshire. Thompson is already pretty much done, and he's admitting to people in public that he's not going to win.
Fundamentalist Christians have been practically lining up to endorse Mitt, with the exception of Pat Robertson - Giuliani, inexplicably - and James Dobson, who has ruled out every top tier candidate except Mitt. (He'll probably endorse Huckabee, though.)
The one thing Mitt absolutely cannot do is say "I'm a Christian." The "speech" is unnecessary before the general election if he wins Iowa and NH. I think he'll have to give one if he's the nominee, though.
ROTT, Hillary's going to throw everything she can at Mitt, but she's far less pleasant than her slimy husband, and she's going to get her hands pretty dirty. As for Mitt's Mass. failings, I think everyone outside of Mass. isn't going to care, and Mitt will never carry his home state in the general, anyway.
Heather, the Economist can go suck Dick Morris' toes.
Mitt doesn't need to say he's a Christian, he just needs to clarify that he isn't beholden to the Church for his political decisions. He needs to remind everyone to breathe deeply and remember that this nation was founded for the purpose of the freedom of religious expression. I just looked at the NRO website and found this article.
And I thought Dobson had already endorsed Huckabee.
Rudy or Mitt will become the next President. Either one of them will beat whatever turd the Donkeys put forward.
Oh, and Mitt's new campaign theme song will be Sheila E's The Glamourous Life. You heard it here first.
I thought Dobson had endorsed Huckabee, too, and then I googled it and only found denials, like this one.
http://massachusettsforhuckabee.blogspot.com/2007/11/dobson-denies-ferociously-huckabee-nod.html
If he's endorsed Huckabee already, I can't find any news about it.
Mitt and Sheila E go together like rama lama lama ke ding a de dinga don.
The Glamorous Life Sensation, created by Mitt’s theme song choice, will force Rudy to go with Anita Ward’s Ring My Bell. History will show this was a poor choice when Mitt’s Sheila E Tsunami takes the Oval Office.
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